Monday, August 22, 2011

Craig Kimbrel & Jonny Venters facts

I came across an interesting article on ESPN by Jayson Stark. I thought it was worth posting on the blog, so here it is.

Strike One -- Brave New Bullpen World Dept.

Rivera and Nelson … Percival and K-Rod … Dibble and Myers … Lidge and Wagner.

We present those names as evidence that we've seen our share of dominating bullpen tag teams through the years. But you know what we've never seen?

Domination like this:

Jonny Venters
Venters

Craig Kimbrel
Kimbrel

Craig Kimbrel and Jonny Venters.

Three Strikes is here to make the case that we've never run across ANY bullpen tag team as unhittable and as untouchable as the Braves' two game-shrinkers have been so far in 2011.

Just eyeball their stat lines for a second and try to comprehend that this is happening in the major leagues, not on your PlayStation. It's amazing:

Insane as those numbers may look from afar, they only get more insane as you look closer. Here's what we mean:

• Want to guess how many bullpen teammates in the 42-year history of the modern save rule have had ERAs that low, with hit rates and strikeout rates that good, in the same season? That would be NONE -- not among relievers who worked at least 60 innings in a season, anyway. Unreal.

• But even if we zap hits and strikeouts right out of this equation and just look at ERAs, we can only find one set of teammates in modern bullpen history who have ERAs this low in the same year. That would be Dennis Eckersley (0.61) and Gene Nelson (1.57) of the 1990 A's. Just for the record, there were two other duos -- Eric Gagne (1.20) and Paul Quantrill (1.75) of the 2003 Dodgers and Joaquin Benoit (1.34) and Rafael Soriano (1.73) of the 2010 Rays -- that barely missed this cut. But that's it -- in the last four decades.

• If you've really paid attention, though, you know Kimbrel and Venters aren't the only occupants of that Braves bullpen with miniscule ERAs. There's a THIRD guy in that 'pen -- Mr. Eric O'Flaherty, ladies and gentlemen -- with a 1.27 ERA. That's "only" in 56 2/3 innings. But nevertheless, even if we lower the innings threshold to that level, there still has never been any modern bullpen that featured THREE relievers with ERAs that microscopic (and at least 55 innings pitched apiece). Ever.

• Hang on, though. There's more. Kimbrel last gave up a run on June 11. That was 30 2/3 consecutive shutout innings ago. Venters last allowed a run on June 29. That was 21 2/3 innings worth of donuts ago. So how often do you see two members of the same bullpen fire up that many consecutive zeroes? Just about never. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, the only other bullpen teammates since 1969 to run off streaks like this at the same time were Joe Nathan (29 innings) and J.C. Romero (23) of the 2004 Twins. So there have never been any others in the National League -- at any stretch of any season -- since bullpen usage even remotely resembled the current bullpen usage. Whoa.

So is it safe to say nobody would want to find themselves trailing this team in the late innings when this October rolls around? Uh, just a little safer than throwing money into the stock market. Don't you think?

Sunday, July 31, 2011

Braves Aquire Michael Bourn

Finally, a decent lead off hitter and excellent defensive center fielder. No more worries about Nate Mclouth or Jordan Schafer. Wren did a good job, keeping our top four minor league pitchers.

Article

ATLANTA -- When Braves general manager Frank Wren began evaluating the trade market, he said he was attempting to enhance his lineup with a right-handed-hitting outfielder. Carlos Beltran and Hunter Pence both fit this category.

But as this month progressed and Dan Uggla began serving as a right-handed power threat again, Wren and his staff determined their primary need was to find a center fielder who could serve as a legitimate leadoff hitter.

Having passed on the opportunities to pay a heavy price for Beltran or Pence, Wren waited patiently and gladly announced Sunday morning that he had acquired Michael Bourn from the Astros in exchange for Jordan Schafer and three Minor League pitchers -- left-hander Brett Oberholtzer and right-handers Paul Clemens and Juan Abreu.

"He was the one thing we were lacking," Wren said. "We haven't really had a prototypical leadoff hitter in five or six years. Getting Michael really adds to our club. ... It might not be the offensive punch, but it's run creation, which is important."

A Houston native, Bourn was sad to learn he would no longer be playing in his hometown. But the trade does provide him the opportunity to be part of a pennant race with a team that is confident it will earn a second straight trip to the postseason.

"It's definitely tough leaving Houston, my hometown. But I understand the trade," Bourn said. "I have the chance to be in a pennant race, so I'm happy about that. I want to say thanks to the Houston fans for their support. It was special to me to play in my hometown. And I want to thank the Astros' organization for the opportunity they gave me. I wish them all the best."

Bourn was unable to get to Atlanta before Sunday's series finale against the Marlins. But he is expected to be with the Braves on Monday, when they begin a three-game series in Washington.

While the Giants feel good about adding Beltran and the Phillies were happy to add Pence, Wren said that he felt Bourn was the better fit for his team. To acquire him, the GM did not have to part ways with any of the four elite pitching prospects -- Julio Teheran, Randall Delgado, Arodys Vizcaino and Mike Minor -- it would have taken to land Beltran or Pence.

"We could have had Beltran if we had given the player they wanted," Wren said. "We're not going to do that for a rental player, for a guy for two months with no Draft compensation coming back. The same thing with Pence. We're not going to give up a couple of those young kids that were premiums for our future in that kind of deal."

When the Phillies acquired Pence, multiple Braves players became anxious and started wondering if Wren would make a significant move. As Saturday night neared its end, he was closing in on completion of this deal.

"When you've got a good team like we have and you have a chance to win, I get caught up in it as far as you want to add that piece that you feel like puts you over the edge," Braves catcher David Ross said. "When you're looking around this locker room and the confidence we have in this team, you start thinking about the World Series."

Bourn is in the midst of the finest season of his career, having hit .303 with a .363 on-base percentage and a Major League-best 39 stolen bases in 105 games entering Sunday. The 28-year-old center fielder recorded a career-high 61 stolen bases last year, two fewer than the entire Braves team.

While Schafer spent the past two months showing he is capable of handling the leadoff role, Bourn is the first proven leadoff hitter the Braves have possessed since Rafael Furcal exited after the 2005 season.

"If he's on base, he's definitely a threat," Braves third baseman Chipper Jones said. "Last time I saw, he was leading the league in steals. We haven't had that kind of threat at the top of our lineup in a long time -- consistently anyway. We'll see how it all turns out."

Bourn has shown steady improvement since breaking in with the Phillies in 2006, and over the course of this season, has seemingly taken his game to another level. He has batted .339 with a .388 on-base percentage in his past 53 games.

The Braves have seen their leadoff hitters bat .254 with a .306 on-base percentage this year. Their center fielders have batted .241 with a .322 on-base percentage.

Once Schafer and fellow center fielder Nate McLouth went on the disabled list, the Braves had even more reason to get a center fielder. They started to get the sense Bourn might be available about a week ago.

"From a strategy standpoint, we didn't want to be really transparent as to what we were looking for," Wren said. "But as we looked at our club, we felt the most glaring need was center field. Even before the injuries, that was an area where we felt we could improve our club."

Bourn has one remaining arbitration-eligible season, and could make in the neighborhood of $7 million next year. Earlier this year, it was revealed Scott Boras is now serving as his agent.

Once considered the top prospect in the Braves' system, Schafer has seen his career stall as he has dealt with a left wrist injury and a banned-substance suspension over the past three seasons. The Braves were forced to call Schafer up from Triple-A Gwinnett in late May, and he had spent most of the past two months as their starting center fielder.

"I don't know if the injuries had [any effect]," Schafer said. "Obviously, I was probably the first one to set things back quite a bit [with the suspension]. It's a business and it happens. I'm not the first player to get traded and I'm not going to be the last."

Jones truly became a fan of Schafer's talents this year and was saddened to learn the 24-year-old outfielder will no longer be playing in the Braves' system. Instead, once his left middle finger heals, Schafer should stand as the Astros' center fielder of the future.

"It's the same old story for him," Jones said. "It seemed like he had it going in the right direction. Another injury kind of knocked him off the track. But he certainly showed a lot of improvement and some promise this year. I was proud of him. He set out in Spring Training to make a difference. And you can honestly say he did that."

Clemens has established himself as a strong prospect while going 6-5 with a 3.73 ERA in 20 starts for Double-A Mississippi this year. MLB.com ranked him as the organization's eighth-best prospect.

Oberholtzer gained attention during Spring Training and has posted a 3.74 ERA in 21 starts for Mississippi. Abreu is a strong-armed right-handed reliever who has recorded 68 strikeouts in 48 innings at Triple-A this year.

While Wren verified that there are not truly any "untouchable prospects" in his organization, he was thrilled to keep his top prospects and improve his Major League club with a player who could prove to be a difference maker with his speed.

"We're not an eighth- or 10th-place team trying to get into the Wild Card," Wren said. "We have one of the best records in baseball. We know we have a good team. We know we can pitch with anyone. So I think it was imperative to do whatever we could to increase our chances."

Monday, June 6, 2011

Braves Draft

Braves pick Sean Gilmartin with their first pick of the 2011 draft. He was the 28th overall selection.

Talking chop as a good piece on him.

This is a safe pick by the Braves, but a pitcher who could move quickly with his refined approach, much like Mike Minor. Many of the high school pitchers the Braves were eying had already been selected by the time Atlanta selected. Below is what the experts had to say about Gilmartin:

Baseball America, ranked him 48th overall in the draft:

Gilmartin isn't flashy, but his total package should take him off the board in the first 50 picks as one of the draft's safest selections. A two-way talent out of a California high school, he attended a camp at Florida State and wound up being one of the Seminoles' rare cross-country recruits. He has pitched on Fridays for three seasons and helped lead Florida State to the College World Series last season, though he struggled putting hitters away in the second half of the season and last summer with USA Baseball's college national team. Gilmartin has improved significantly in the last year and become a scouts' darling with his combination of good size (6-foot-2, 192 pounds), clean arm action and solid athleticism. He has pushed his fastball into the average velocity range at 88-91 mph, his changeup remains a plus pitch and his slider has improved to average. Gilmartin knows how to use his stuff, particularly his changeup, how to set up hitters and how to keep them off-balance. His 10-1, 1.35 season includes four double-digit strikeout efforts. Scouts compare Gilmartin favorably to Vanderbilt southpaw Mike Minor, who went seventh overall to the Braves in 2009 and reached the majors a season later.

Keith Law of ESPN, who ranked Gilmartin 71st:

Gilmartin's a college performer with adequate stuff but who may need to find another gear to be more than a fourth or fifth starter in the big leagues.

He'll pitch with a fringe-average fastball, mostly 88-89 but touching a 91, and has a big, slow curveball that might work against lefties but wouldn't be a weapon against better right-handed batters. His best pitch is his changeup, 76-78 mph with good arm speed and some late fading action, although he uses it a lot and I'd like to see him pitch more off his fastball. He's a good athlete who can even swing the bat a little bit. He stays over the rubber well and pronates his arm very early after showing the ball to the center fielder.

This is what I thought Mike Minor was in college -- a command lefty with a good changeup but an average fastball and no plus breaking ball. Minor added some muscle after signing and upped his velocity, at least temporarily, and I suppose Gilmartin could do the same.

A safe pick by the Braves, clearly, and a player who should sign for slot and sign quickly. As far as a strategy of getting the best available player on the board, Gilmartin was likely not the best guy out there. If this was a money thing, then there were other more projectable players who would have been easy to sign. The Braves must have a feeling about Gilmartin, that they can get him in their system and mold him into a higher ceiling talent, (again) much like they did with Minor. It continues a string of safe drafts for the Braves, with Lipka and Minor both safe and easily signable players.

In addition to the Mike Minor comps for Gilmartin, there have also been a lot of Tom Glavine comps. Tony DeMacio, the Braves scouting director who runs the Atlanta draft room, was the scout who originally signed Glavine way back in 1984. So he could be trying to rekindle some of that magic.

The larger strategy here could be that by drafting a guy like Gilmartin, who should move quickly to the Majors in the next couple of years, the Braves signal that they may be willing to trade some of their current stock of pitching talent. One thing is for certain, they're building quite a stable of young arms -- several staffs worth.

The Braves will not pick again until late in the second round, which begins Tuesday at noon.

Tuesday, May 24, 2011

Injuries!

A few series have passed since the last time I made an article. I don't think I wish to revisit those series since the Braves have played horribly. The Braves get the Pittsburgh Pirates for two games starting tonight with Jair Jurrjens on the mound.

- Jason Heyward was placed on the 15 day DL. His shoulder is still bothering him. Personally he should of been placed on the DL to start with when he finally said something about it. I can't stand it when a player hides an injury. It's better to be on the DL and heal up instead of being an automatic out every time the player bats. Supposedly the shoulder acted up in Spring. He started off the season looking good, including seven home runs. However he eventually slumped and as a result, it hurt the team considerably in the time (a month?) that he was hampered by the injury. He might not even be ready to go when the time is up.

- Nate Mclouth was also placed on the DL. He has a strained oblique. Jordan Schafer was called up to take over the roster spot.

In fact the Braves have a lot more injury concerns than these two.

Tuesday, May 17, 2011

Braves Sweep Astros

The Braves won both games in the short two games series vs. the Houston Astros.

Game One (Monday)

Astros 2, Braves 3

- Tommy Hanson has been awesome. He pitched seven innings, allowing three hits, two runs (one earned) walking one and struck out ten. His mistake was allowing a home run to Matt Downs.

- Eric O'Flaherty pitched a scoreless 8th while striking out two.

- Craig Kimbrel got his 11th save. He struck out three batters and allowed one hit.

- Eric Hinske is on fire. He was 3-4 with a run and an RBI.

- Joe Mather had a key hit, driving in two runs. He was 2-4 to finish the game.

Game Two (Tuesday)

Astros 1, Braves 3

This game wasn't looking so good right up until the bottom of the 9th. With a 1-0 lead by the Astros, Brian McCann made a pinch hit appearance (Ross Started) and hit a solo shot to tie the game at 1-1. This brought the game into extra innings. McCann replaced Ross as the catcher, so when he came up to bat in the bottom of the 11th, he hit a two run homer therefore winning the game in walk off fashion.

- Derek Lowe did very well this game. He pitched seven innings, giving up five hits, one earned run, and striking out four batters.

- The Braves bullpen completed four innings of work and were successful. George Sherrill pitched exactly zero innings, allowing the only two batters he faced to get on base. One of them was opposing pitcher Wandy Rodriguez!

- Both Chipper Jones and Jason Heyward returned to the lineup. Chipper was 1-5 and Heyward was 1-3 with a pair of walks.

Good series for the Braves obviously. The games weren't pretty but they got two wins like they should of.

*The Braves will head to Arizona for another west coast trip. Julio Teheran will make his second big league start as he fills in for injured Brandon Beachy.