Season Started-Update

Wow, it's been more than a month since my last post. There has been plenty to write about (20+ more predictions, news, etc). I admit, I have been a slacker.

Anyways, the Braves have had a decent start so far. Especially the 2 game sweep of the Amazing Mets (game one postponed). They beat John Maine who is probably their 2nd best starter. The best part is the defeating of Johan Santana, arguably the top pitcher in baseball in the last 4 or 5 years.

John Smoltz looked good in his 1st start. He went 5 innings with 78 pitches and was done; a precaution decision due to his shoulder.

Tom Glavine will take the mound tonight in Colorado. I am hopeful he can last 6-7 innings and give the bullpen a little break. So far the problem of bullpen overuse remains.

Chipper Jones-Full Season?

Chipper had a very good 2007 season. He missed nearly a month of playing time, and still matched up to Mets star David Wright in Home runs (29/3o), Runs (108/113), and Doubles(42/42), RBI(102/107). Chipper was superior in average, obp, and Slug %. In fact he lead the entire NL in OPS. Chipper also had one of his best season's defensively (still about average). It was overall one of the best seasons of his career.

It looks that there is no indication of Chipper on a decline. The only hinder is the injuries he has suffered in the last four seasons. Last season, this was no pulled hammy or foot problems, but rather some "fluke injuries" that some call it. The collision with Pirates 3rd baseman Jose Bautista is the only real factor in his missed playing time. The question once again is...can Chipper play at least 150 games this season? We can only hope so. A full season with Tex behind him is no doubt going to draw some pretty good numbers.

Worst Case

400AB, 70 R, 120H, 24 2b, 1 3b, 20 HR, 83 RBI, 73 BB, 80 SO, 2 SB, .401 OBP, .530 Slug, .302 Avg

Best Case

550AB, 120 R, 185 H, 45 2b, 3 3b, 36 HR, 110 RBI, 93 BB, 78 SO, 8 SB, .420 OBP, .613 Slug .336 Avg

Looking at Jeff Francoeur

Another good article by DOB on AJC is about Jeff Francoeur. Francoeur also muscled up during the winter and showed it was worthwhile. Nothing wrong with extra pop to get them balls out of the park.

"What would be ideal is to put the last two seasons together, [batting average] with the home runs and power," he said. "I feel like I can do it."

This will help determine my predictions.

Lets see...Overall, I think we will see a similar Jeff Francoeur with a little bit of improvement in his overall game. I expect an extra bit of power output, as well as increased walks or a higher OBP.

Worst Case Scenario

650 AB, 80 R, 170 H, 25 2b, 1 3b, 18 HR, 90 RBI, 30 BB, 2 SB, .261 AVG, .440 SLUG, .300 OBP


Best Case Scenario

600 AB, 95 R, 185 H, 45 2b, 2 3b, 30 HR, 109 RBI, 58 BB, 6 SB, .308 AVG, .520 SLUG, .357 OBP

These are reasonable. I am completely dropping the sabermetrics prediction sites for now.

Yunel Continued

According to David O'Brien (DOB) of AJC, Yunel Escobar is ripped! He put on some muscle during the off season. DOB thinks Escobar is the 2nd biggest SS behind Miguel Tejada. Expect his power numbers to increase a few for this upcoming season. This guy is worth a late round draft spot, could be a bargain. I don't think many people think very highly of him, he is flying under the radar. However, don't stack your fantasy team with Braves players. Bad idea drafting your favorite players if you want to be successful.

Yunel Escobar

This is a tough one to predict. I think Escobar has enough experience to fill in for Renteria full time and make a solid replacement. I doubt he will replicate Renteria's 2007 numbers, but I can see him being pretty solid and even worthy of drafting in fantasy. Escobar should be more solid on defense however. It seemed like everything to the left or right of Renteria went into the outfield. Many Braves skeptics think the Braves got worse with the loss of Renteria. I believe Escobar will make you forget him.

I found a website that has a few different predictions based on some formula. Not exactly my favorite, but for a guy with little mlb experience, it makes it easier for me to judge on how he might do. I'll give an example of CHONE projections. On a side note, they give Escobar better numbers than Renteria.

AB R H 1B 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO HBP AVG OBP SLG OPS
471 74 136 97 29 3 7 50 8 6 44 73 5 .289 .356 .408 .763

Not bad, I believe he will have more at bats, probably around 600. So therefore I expect around 100 runs, 174 hits, 35 2B, 10 HR, 65 RBI, 15 SB, 5 CS, 60 BB, 85 SO, .290 AVG, .370 OBP, .450 SLG, .820 OPS.

He will be all around solid, not quite elite like Rollins, Reyes, Ramirez, but will definitely contribute. Like I said, it is tough to tell what exactly we will get out of Escobar. Anything better than CHONE projections and mine is a bargain.

Kelly Johnson Prediction

Kelly Johnson had a pretty decent 1st year at 2nd base for the Braves during the 2007 season. I expect him to build upon his progress. An improvement offensively and defensively as he matures a little more as a ball player. Johnson seems to be the least appreciated player on the Braves by many fans and call for Martin Prado. I can't seem to figure out why. Johnson's defense was average, not bad, nor good. His offense on the other hand was pretty good for a player of his position. Statistically, Johnson is a top 10 2nd baseman in the majors and I can see him jumping a few spots in 08. It also depends on where he bats in the lineup.

Worst case scenario

550 AB 80 R 150 H 20 2b 1 3b 10 HR 50 RBI 60 BB 130 SO .272 BA .350 OBP .430 Slug %

Best case scenario

600 AB 100 R 185 H 40 2b 5 3b 22 HR 78 RBI 85 BB 90 SO .308 BA .390 OBP .490 Slug %

I am not expert on predictions, maybe I'll go back and post some Zips projections or Bill James? Can't be far off.

Daily Player Predictions

Starting tomorrow, I will be evaluate each player of the Braves and try to predict their stats for the coming season. Probably one player a day. Being a fan, it's hard not to be biased, so I think I'll go with a best case scenario and a worst case scenario. I think for the most part, the numbers will be in the same ball park. I won't be predicting Kelly Johnson to hit 30 home runs.

Update

I apologize for another absence of posts. I have 7 college classes this semester so this will probably have to wait another couple of months.

A lot has happened during the off season and I wish I was able to discuss the events. There were some trades that got me scratching my head. At least they were nothing major. I am still expecting a few more minor moves before the season starts.

Spring training nears and things will pick up. I'll start posting on a daily basis for the season again. Patience!