Braves Lose-Phillies Tied for 1st!

Given the chances of the Braves being in the playoffs, I was actually not upset about tonight's loss. The reason is because the Phillies are now tied with the Mets for 1st place in the NL East division.

Imagine this...The Mets could actually not make it into the playoffs this season. That would certainly brighten up my mood and help me recover from another Braves season failure.

Chipper Jones is simply amazing, 29 hrs, 102 rbi, with all the time he's missed? Certainly should be considered for MVP. Leads NL in OPS, OPS +, 3rd in VORP, 1st in runs created per game. Need I go on? He has also had one of his best, if not the best season defensively as well.

Braves Rumors

I decided to give you some scoop as to what I have been seeing around online.

mlbtraderumors.com has a few recent rumors regarding Andruw Jones and Edgar Renteria.

The Andruw Jones Situation

David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution has a thorough dissection of the Andruw Jones situation.

The Braves have yet to speak to Jones, and their intentions for the center field spot in '08 are anybody's guess. If the Braves want to go short-term, it appears Andruw would consider a one-year offer. Scott Boras scoffed at the idea a few months ago but Jones had a subpar second half since then. If the Braves still want to lock him up, O'Brien reports that Jones might take a five-year, $75MM pact. I don't see the Braves doing it.

As for fitting Andruw into the 2008 budget, the team's president has indicated that payroll is likely to rise next year. It could reach the $90-100MM range. Payroll stood at $87MM on Opening Day.

Here's the problem: even subtracting Jones' $13.5MM salary and replacing him internally with, say, Kelly Johnson, the Braves are looking at roughly a $7MM net increase just with current players. Hudson, Smoltz, and Teixeira's raises will add roughly $17MM to the payroll, plus another several million for arbitration-eligible players. So a $95MM payroll might just buy the Braves their current roster sans Andruw and Octavio Dotel. Trading Edgar Renteria might be a necessity.

Meanwhile, Tom Krasovic of the San Diego Union-Tribune has reported that the Padres are mulling a one-year offer to Jones in excess of his current $13.5MM salary. The Nationals and many other clubs could make a similar one-year offer.

-I like what I hear. I would personally be willing to offer Jones a contract at about what he is making already. He would most likely go back to his career norm line of .260 avg 30 hr 100 and would actually be a bargain. Unlike the past couple of seasons, his defense has been stellar this time. He leads all center fielders in the majors with a .921 revised zone rating (RZR). Although he was right at the time, Jayson Stark would probably take back his comments about Andruw's defense right now.


Let's Make A Deal: Edgar Renteria

I've been getting a lot of emails about Edgar Renteria. Let's take a look at the situation. In my opinion, the Braves need to import one solid, dependable starting pitcher. Free agency presents plenty of options - a few dependable, most not: Matt Clement, Bartolo Colon, Freddy Garcia, Randy Wolf, Jaret Wright, Jason Jennings, Koji Uehara, Carlos Silva, Livan Hernandez, Tom Glavine.

Same deal with trade options: Carl Pavano, Jose Contreras, Kei Igawa, Matt Morris, Jon Garland, Bronson Arroyo, Nate Robertson, maybe Joe Blanton.

Back to Renteria - can we find a match? The Tigers, and A's might want to import a shortstop (though Renteria for Blanton wouldn't fly with Oakland). Indeed, the first two connections have already surfaced in print. The Braves offered Renteria and a top pitching prospect to the White Sox for Garland and were denied. And more recently, John Paul Morosi of the Detroit Free Press connected Renteria with the Tigers for multiple reasons.

I like a Robertson for Renteria swap.The Braves get two below-market price years of Robertson, who could be quite solid in the NL and is only 30 years old. Renteria meanwhile is signed cheaply for $9MM in '08 with an $11MM club option ($3MM buyout) for '09. Better yet, the Red Sox are chipping in towards next year's salary and would cover the buyout. Everybody wins and even Carlos Guillen is happy.

The Braves would then move Yunel Escobar to shortstop and play Kelly Johnson every day at second base.That's not much of a loss and Robertson would really solidify the staff if healthy.

You may recall Keith Law opining in July that Escobar did have the glove to play short and could be a respectable hitter.The Blue Jays, Royals, A's, Cubs, Astros, Cardinals, and Giants may also be in the market for a shortstop. Shaun Marcum, Joe Blanton, Wandy Rodriguez, Anthony Reyes, Sean Marshall, and Noah Lowry could conceivably be available from those clubs. Marcum's a long shot and as I said above I don't see Renteria for Blanton happening.

Anyone have any other reasonable trade scenarios for Renteria?

-I have to agree with the writer here. Renteria is expandable, and I believe Escobar could fill in nicely. You have to consider that Renteria had one of his best season's offensively, why not try and bait other teams with him? There still a few serviceable infielders in the minors as well for any emergency reasons.

Braves Playoff Odds

According to baseball prospectus, the Braves have less than 1 % chance of making the playoffs. So, consider the season pretty much done. I do love how the Braves never give up, they are still playing good ball games going 8-2 in their last 10.

The Phillies have a 43 % chance at the wild card and a 48 % chance for the playoffs. Still a good shot, but I don't see it. It's going to another competitive race next season for sure. Mets, Phillies, and Braves will all be at it again, with the Braves being a lot more involved.

I took a look at ESPN's relative power index, and the Braves expected win loss totals at this point is 86-70. I figured it would be higher than the actual record (82-74). I can recall a couple of games the Braves should have won.

I compared the expected wins and loss with the other teams. Quite interesting...

Braves:86-70 Actual Record:82-74

Mets:85-70 Actual Record:87-68

Phillies:84-72 Actual Record:85-71

I don't really like making excuses, but the Braves did underachieve this season.

NL East Update

Yes, it has been awhile since my last post. During the time this blog has been dormant, a couple of interesting things have unraveled in the NL East division. For those who are a bit slow, or lack knowledge, the NL East consists of 5 teams; Atlanta Braves, Florida Marlins, New York Mets, Philadelphia Phillies, and the Washington Nationals. Before I get to the division, I would like to mention Jeff Bennett. This guy could be a diamond in the rough, although his career has kind of been up and down, his performance last night was rather impressive. 5.2 innings pitched, 1 earned run, and 8 strike outs. Certainly something the Braves need at this time.

Anyways, here are the current standings.

On Sept 12th, the Mets had a 7 game lead over the 2nd place Phillies. To this date, they have a 1.5 game lead. If they blow this division, I would be quite happy actually. A choke job like that would really give us east rivals some Mets bashing fuel. For these last few games, I am also a Phillies fan, or rather, a fan of the Mets remaining opponents.

Sadly, there are only 9 games left for the Braves. If they could overcome a 4.5 game deficit, I would be amazed. The wild card is a long shot with too many teams involved and the Braves being another game back at 5.5.

Tonight the Braves will try to win 6 straight. Tim Hudson will go for his 17th win. Carlos Villanueva will pitch for the Brewers. Carlos looks like a decent pitcher, I hope he doesn't do too bad, because I added him to one of my fantasy teams.

Braves Rally to Take Phillies Series

A rather impressive comeback by the Braves today. It was 8-2 in the 7th inning, a sure loss right? It's nice to see the Braves are still putting in such effort considering their chances of getting into the playoffs.




As you can see from this picture, it was a pretty happy ending. I think the look on Francoeur's face is pretty funny.

-I don't know what happened to Tim Hudson, but he is stinking it up lately. That is three straight poor starts counting today. A bounce back is due.

-I don't know about Oscar Villarreal. He allowed four hits and 3 earned runs in .2 innings. Maybe another tired reliever?

-Matt Diaz can hit, and it is a shame that he doesn't play everyday. I wonder what his totals would be if he got 600 at bats a season. The platoon of him and Harris is solid no doubt, but I don't know if many realize Harris is now batting .288. Diaz is batting .350, what more does someone have to do to prove he deserves to be starting...somewhere?

-Earlier, I had my doubts about Yunel Escobar. I wondered why many people liked him so much. I have been impressed actually, and he has filled in greatly for Renteria. Really, you couldn't ask for a better time for him to show some of his talent. He's been doing well enough that there are rumors of the Braves shopping Renteria now.

The Braves will play the Washington Nationals for the next series on Friday. John Smoltz will try to out duel Joel Hanrahan.

Braves Take Game One of Phillies Series

A surprise win for me, the Phillies have handled the Braves well all season, but things didn't go so well for them this time Too bad the Braves have to play the Phillies while the Mets are running away with the division.

-Lance Cormier pitched well in 5.2 innings. He gave up only one run and struck out 5. Cormier isn't someone you want in your rotation full time, but for now he's serviceable.

-The bullpen did pretty well in preserving the win. Pitching 3.1 innings and allowing no runs. I really like Manny Acosta

-If there is anyone you want in the 2nd half of the season, that is Brian McCann. I love this kid, he having pretty good overall numbers despite them being poor compared to last season. I think this kid can be even better and I'm glad the Braves locked him up for a while.

-The other kid is Jeff Francoeur, hes been pretty solid all season, and has improved greatly compared to last season. The next step would be to sign this guy long term, and I can see that during the off-season. With the possibility of Andruw leaving, that would free up some money. Also, the new ownership seems to be more open to spending than Time Warner.

Buddy Carlyle will pitch for the Braves tonight while Kyle Lohse will pitch for the Phillies. Tough call here...I say the Braves win another.

Mets Sweep Braves

That's it folks. The season is just about done for the Braves. Anyone who is still thinking the Braves can somehow miraculously pull it off and make the playoffs is a little over their head. If you are one of those, can you seriously think this team which is just about at .500 is going to game back from a 7.5 game deficit in the NL East? The wild card is just as bad, being 6.5 games back.

The Braves got owned by the Mets, basically making their ridiculously overachieving staff look like the Braves 1998 rotation.

Another thing I find pretty funny, is that Julio Franco is back on the team after being designated for assignment.

I was hoping the Braves would at least take one or two games from the Mets to at least help the Phillies in the run. Now the Braves have to play the Phillies themselves coming up, and the best thing would be for them to get swept again. Ok, not really, but I would much rather see the Phillies win the division than the Mets.