Another Chipper Jones Update

ATLANTA -- Daily cortisone treatments begun last week have calmed the tendinitis in Chipper Jones' surgically repaired left knee. This week, the Braves' third baseman will start agility drills.

As Spring Training nears, Jones feels that he is on schedule to be ready for Opening Day. But there are still hurdles -- and questions -- that remain.

"I'm starting to get ready to do it for real," Jones said Monday at Turner Field. "That's when I'll see where I'm really at."

Jones, who tore his anterior cruciate ligament in August, will report to Spring Training with the pitchers and catchers on Feb. 14. He hasn't taken any ground balls yet, but has been hitting since December.

The tendinitis, which wasn't unexpected, had limited him and made batting right-handed painful for the switch-hitter. But he hopes that is in the past.

"I've felt good since I began the treatments and I've had no limitations since," Jones said.

The colder-than-usual Atlanta winter has kept Jones from doing much outside, which may not be a bad thing.

"Everybody who knows me knows that I'm going to try to do too much too quick," Jones said. "[The weather] has helped keep the reins drawn in, which is probably a good thing. I'm resigned to not doing any of the fielding stuff until I get down to Spring Training, which is probably in my best interest.

"My knee isn't quite there yet. I can run straight ahead, but it still feels like my left leg is five pounds heavier than my right. That's just something that comes with the surgery."

As he eases back into things, though, don't expect Jones to wear a bulky brace like former Atlanta teammate Sid Bream. He will wear a sleeve for support instead during workouts as well as games.

The flareup of tendinitis wasn't a setback in Jones' mind, just something to be expected as part of the rehab process. And he said it has been much less of a problem than when he tore the ACL in 1994. That repair required major surgery, rather than being done arthroscopically.

"Now that you're starting to get into the everyday hustle and bustle of getting yourself ready for Spring Training, you've got aches and pains," Jones said. "Tendinitis is just one of those steps you've got to get by."

His treatment is through a process called phoresis, an alternative to a cortisone shot. Jones wears a pad on his knee and the anti-inflammatory is electronically distributed through the skin.

Jones, 38, had hinted at retirement as he struggled early last season, but he had regained his hitting stroke before being injured on a fielding play in Houston on Aug. 12. He vowed to come back, saying, "I don't want the fans' final image of me to be one of me hurt on the field."

Jones, who has a .300 career average and 436 home runs, feels that his return is on schedule.

"I've got to get to the point where I don't mentally think about the knee," Jones said. "As long as I don't have any pain down there, I won't think about it. That's why I'm really excited about coming down here [to Turner Field], getting the treatment, getting that tendinitis out of there."

Things are looking pretty good so far. Let's hope that everything goes well and there are no setbacks. It would be nice to have Chipper and his .400 obp back in the lineup. Over or under 100 games this year? I'll be optimistic too and say over.

Rodrigo Lopez Signs with Braves

Rodrigo Lopez chose the Braves out of three possible destinations. The New York Mets and Colorado Rockies were the other two choices. I can't blame him for choosing the Braves, but he would of had a better chance of joining the Mets or Rockies rotation in the future.

It's a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training. With the abundance of young pitchers in the organization already...why waste money or time on a below average pitcher?

Aparantly this is the 2nd time the guy has signed with the organization as well. He signed in 2008 after Tommy John surgery only to be released shortly later.

If it's for more pitching depth, it seems to be okay. I do not expect him to be involved in any future plans with the big club.

Anyways, here's an article from the Braves official site.

Keith Law's Top Ten Braves Prospects

Keith Law of ESPN posted his top ten Braves prospects. This is on ESPN Insider if you have access to it. There is some discussion about this on talkingchop.

1. Julio Teheran, RHP (6)
2. Freddie Freeman, 1B (43)
3. Arodys Vizcaino, RHP (47)
4. Randall Delgado, RHP (50)
5. Mike Minor, LHP (61)
6. Craig Kimbrel, RHP
7. Carlos Perez, LHP
8. Matt Lipka, SS
9. Edward Salcedo, SS
10. Cristian Bethancourt, C

The numbers to the right of the player's name indicate their rank in all of MLB. I believe it is out of 100 players, so that is why the other half of the prospects don't have a number. They didn't make the top 100, but they could easily make it on the list next year.

I haven't talked about Vizcaino at all. He missed a lot of time last season and yet still remains high in the system. His upside is supposedly greater than Delgado. Arodys was a prospect aquired in the Javier Vasquez trade; perhaps the biggest piece of the trade (not Melky Cabrera).

Kimbrel doesn't have a number because Keith Law doesn't value relief pitchers much in his rankings. Craig Kimbrel already proved to be a nasty pitcher in his short time in Atlanta. He will take over the closer role once held by Billy Wagner (retired). Billy Wagner has not officially retired yet, but several sources say he will.

ESPN's Keith Law Ranks Braves Minor League System

Keith Law ranks the Braves minor league system number three in all of baseball. It's good to see the Braves farm system back on top after John Schuerholtz nearly drained the system by doing trades such as the one that involved Mark Teixeira. In fact, I have an article about this trade back when in happened. The Texas Rangers went to the World Series last year with a few guys that were top prospects in the Atlanta Braves system. These two are known as Neftali Feliz and Elvis Andrus.

Good thing current GM Frank Wren seems to understand the value in keeping top prospects.

If you have ESPN insider, you can read the article here. If not, you can still see that the Braves are number three on the list.

Top Ten List: Teheran, Minor, Freeman

I found an article on MLB.com that has best prospect lists; top ten left handed pitchers, top ten right handed pitchers and top ten first basemen. These lists include a few Braves.

Mike Minor was ranked number four on the list for left handed pitchers.

-4. Mike Minor, Braves: Minor's stuff was pretty good at Vanderbilt, but he fit more of the sensible lefty mold. As a professional, though, his stuff has been much better than expected. His fastball has gained a few ticks, his changeup is a plus pitch and his curve has improved as well. He can throw all three pitches for strikes. It took him a year to get to Atlanta, and he could very well be there to stay. Braves fans should get excited about having Tommy Hanson, Julio Teheran and Minor in the rotation.

While Minor has already had some time with Atlanta he still has potential to be a #1 or #2 pitcher in a rotation despite his poor performance. Eight games at the Major League level isn't big enough of a sample size to declare anything. He possessed a good k/9 rate throughout the minors and his WHIP was fairly low. He could be a pretty good bargain for a number five starter out of the rotation. Let's hope he has a good spring training. Brandon Beachy could still get the 5th spot.

Julio Teheran was ranked number two in the right handed group.

-2. Julio Teheran, Braves: Teheran jumped on the fast track in 2010, pitching across three levels. He's got a terrific three-pitch mix (fastball, changeup, curve), all of which are at least above-average. Just 20, his command on the mound belies his years and that, combined with his stuff, points to a future at the top of a rotation. Atlanta already has Tommy Hanson and Mike Minor. It may not take too long for Teheran to join them.

Teheran might be a September call up to get some time in this year. Teheran is a lock for the 2012 season, unless he has some crazy horrific year in the minors. Some have compared this guy to a young Pedro Martinez. That is huge considering that Pedro is one of the best pitchers in the history of the game. He will be 20 years old this year, plenty of time to develop even more as he gets older.

The Braves also have Randall Delgado, who is a top pitching prospect who didn't make the list (surprisingly). But lets not get all upset, it's just a writers opinion.

The best part is that no other teams in the NL East are represented on either list for pitching.

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Freddie Freeman appeared at number two on the first baseman list.

2. Freddie Freeman, Braves: He belongs on any list for 2011 National League Rookie of the Year Award candidates, and not just because he'll have the opportunity to play every day for Atlanta. He might not have the best power in this group, but there's plenty more than what he's shown to date (though he did have 35 doubles and 18 homers in 2010). His smooth left-handed swing should allow him to hit for average and drive in runs right out of the gate.

This guy should bring some excitement to the team this year. He will be starting the season without any kid of spring training competition, a rarity. It will be like Jason Heyward all over again, although no one will or should be expecting him to match Heyward's rookie season numbers.

Freeman absolutely raked in Triple A. At 20 years old, he posted 18 home runs, 87 RBI, 35 Doubles, and had a .319Avg/.378Obp/.521Slug line in 124 games. If that doesn't have you optimistic, I don't know what will. He is also supposedly very good with the glove as well.

I'm liking the trend. Heyward (2010), Freeman (2011), Teheran (2012). Throw in Delgado somewhere too.

Nate McLouth: A Lot to Prove

Nate McLouth, who last season batted an awesome .190avg/.298obp/.620Ops and made millions of dollars, is likely to be the starting center fielder for the Braves again for the 2011 season. It's fairly obvious why this guy should be given another shot.

-He will be making $7.75 million regardless of how he plays. $6.50 million with a $1.25 buyout. That kind of money alone is worth trying to get this guy to perform. Lets try to get some value while we can, and if he does perform, it pays off right?

-Although it might not really be his last year of the contract (has an option). Another reason would be the phrase "contract year." This is the last year they have in a contract before a player hits free agency. In McLouth's case, his option would have to be dropped. Sometimes players seem to miraculously perform better than usual in a effort to get their numbers up and get that extra pay. Adrian Beltre is a great example. Check out his stats in 2004, the best season of his career. That was a contract year. Check out last season(2010), another great year out of average years. You guessed it, another contract year. Since McLouth is possibly in his last year of his contract, will the Braves benefit from this? That's another $10.65 million for 2012 if he wanted the Braves to pick up his option. It could be his last chance...or else he might not find another major league job. Not that it matters, he's already set for life with the money he's already been given.

-McLouth is only 29 years old. An age usually associated within a player's prime years or best years.

-He looked decent in his brief return to the Braves on August 31.

-Nate has already proved he can be a good ball player, as evidenced by his 2008 season with the Pittsburgh Pirates. How do you think he got that three year $15.75 million contract of his?

I think we can remain optimistic about a turnaround. I wouldn't make a bet on it however. If he fails to be a beneficial asset to the team, we can probably look forward to seeing Jordan Schafer give it another try.

Here's a better read on Nate McLouth by David O'brien.

Arbitration Eligable Players Signed

Four important players were up for arbitration and all of them have avoided that by agreeing to one year deals, according to AJC's David O'Brien.

-Martin Prado agreed to a $3.1 million deal. A raise from $440,000.

-Jair Jurrjens agreed to a $3.25 million deal. A raise from $480,000.

-Peter Moylan agreed to a $2 million deal. A raise from $1.15 million.

-Eric O'Flaherty agreed to a $895,00 deal. A raise from $440,000.

I consider this a pretty good bargain all around. It's little more than $9 million for four guys who contribute greatly to the team. I like how they just signed one year deals.

Jurrjens kind of worries me a bit regarding injuries, and with a couple of ace projected guys developing in the minors in Julio Teheran and Randall Delgado, he might be expendable. Jurrjens is also a Scott Boras client, who may be overpriced someday. Can he stay healthy and pitch a full season? If so, I doubt he duplicates his 2009 season. I would expect his 2008 season to be the norm.

*In other news, former Brave and all-star center fielder Andruw Jones might be signing a contract with the New York Yankees. Horrible news. I was hoping the Braves would grab him as a 4th outfielder option. He is only 33 years old, still hits lefty pitching well, and a little reunion would perhaps draw some more fans.

Tim Hudson 2011 Forecast

Tim Hudson had Tommy John Surgery after an elbow injury during the 2008 season. He had put in 142 innings of work before he was finished for the season. He came back at the end of the 2009 season and put in 42 innings, making the surgery successful, as it usually is.

2010 marked his first full season since his surgery, and he looked like a new pitcher. After only having a 2.13 ERA when he finished his start on August 13th 2010, he slumped, finishing the season with a 2.83 ERA. It was his best season as an Atlanta Brave.

Many say his low BABIP or (Batting Average on Balls In Play) contributed to his fall off, saying he was extremely lucky for his successful season. BABIP is a measure of the number of batted balls that safely fall in for a hit (not including home runs). Since his was a .250 avg and the normal is around .300, it suggested all along that he was likely going to regress.

There is also xFIP, which is Expected Fielding Independent Pitching. It's a measure of all those things for which a pitcher is specifically responsible. It's supposed to help you understand how well a pitcher pitched, regardless of how well his fielders fielded. This stat also supposedly can tell you how well a pitcher might pitch in the future. Should his ERA regress or get better? Keep in mind it is for ERA. Think opposite of BABIP. The lower the number here, the better. If his xFIP is way higher than his current ERA, then you might see a increase in his ERA in the future.

Here's an article that can help you understand a little better as to what all this is about. It's not the best article and I don't think it really helps my case. The reason I bring all this nonsense up is because I will be predicting the Atlanta Braves' pitchers and ERA is one of the stats. BABIP, FIP, XFIP are some tools used to help predict future ERA. Not 100% accurate, but pretty good overall. Some people put way too much emphasis on these three stats. Some people don't like these at all, specifically traditionalist, who use only the basic bare bone stats such as W-L, ERA, strikeouts, average, home runs, and RBI and refuse to learn any more about the sport. Yeah, those are fantastic for fantasy purposes. If you want to only use those as arguments for comparing players in reality, you're going to get beat.

Other than the article I posted, the reason I say it's not 100% accurate is because it can penalize certain pitchers such as those who produce a lot of ground balls. Tim Hudson is a ground ball pitcher. Strike outs are a plus, but he pitches to contact for ground balls. His main pitch is a sinker ball, which in most cases causes a batter to hit the top half of the ball, thus forcing it downwards producing a ground ball. Derek Lowe is also a ground ball pitcher.

I'll have to keep in mind who's fielding behind these guys. People don't like the idea of Dan Uggla occupying 2nd base when Martin Prado is a better fielder. Uggla should be in left field (least important position) while Prado remains at 2nd base. Tim and Derek will be relying on their defense to be fielding these ground balls. Chipper Jones will be at 3rd base with a surgically repaired ACL as well. Limited range could be a problem.

Personally, I think that part of Tim Hudson's struggles in late August and September are as a result of pitching 228.2 innings his first full season back from Tommy John. Not all from a particularly "lucky" season. Perhaps he dealt with fatigue? 228.2 innings is a big jump from years of 142 innings and 42 innings. In his career, there is no year to year correlation of late season collapses. In other words, he has never dropped off in performance as significat as .70 Runs to his ERA at the end of the season. Here's an example, in 2007, Hudson remain fairly consistent through the season.

During Hudson's best season in 2003 with the Oakland Athetics, he had a BABIP of .261, the second lowest of his career. Hudson didn't regress that year. He remained consistent. In, fact, he went from an ERA of 3.29 in June and finished in September with an ERA of 2.70.

So with all this said, I don't see any reason to see any serious decline in Hudson's overall play. I'll be safe and bump his numbers up a bit. Just for the sake of the guys playing behind him, his age, and the whole "fluke factor."

I decided not to post Tim's prediction just yet. Maybe I will for my next post.

Player Predictions

Back before the start of the 2008 season, I was going through the Braves roster and giving a quick overview with a prediction of season stats. That didn't go so well. As you can see I only got a couple players in before I became a slacker and then all of the sudden the season started. I disappeared thereafter.

I'd like to give this another shot. I think I'll go through the starting pitchers first. It's early yet, and at this time pitchers are easier to predict. I am not sure of what lineup the Braves will be throwing out for the season quite yet, but I can guess. It does have an effect on a players statistics in some regards. For example, a player batting lead off is more likely to have more Runs and less RBI than a guy batting in the 6th spot.

I don't think Fangraphs has all its predictions or "projections" up yet. The fan projections are up, but I will wait. I like to look at Bill James, Chone, and Zips as well. Looks like Fangraphs only has Marcel, Zips and Fans for comparing this time around.

A Look at an Oldie Article

I had another general look at my old articles. Upon skimming through I found something very interesting, bringing a smile to my face. Posted on June 9, 2007.

Braves Draft

I did mention that I liked Jason Heyward. How he got to us at 14th in the first round is beyond me. I recall reading at the time that he was a steal in the draft.

I also noticed another guy on there who could be a fixture for years to come as well. His name is Frederick Freeman.

This is why I came back to blogging. This thing is a time capsule!

Chipper Jones' Knee Update

Found right on the main page of MLB.com. So far so good, the team could use his veteran presence and his usually good batting.

ATLANTA -- As Chipper Jones navigated the crowded and still-icy Atlanta interstates to simply experience a couple rounds of batting practice at Turner Field on Friday, he certainly didn't seem apprehensive about his attempt to return from left ACL surgery for the second time in his career.

If Jones chose to walk away from baseball right now, he would at least avoid the possibility that he could realize the same fate as his former Braves teammates John Smoltz and Tom Glavine, who are among the many great professional athletes who have seen their careers end in unflattering fashion.

Since having his ACL surgically repaired in August, Jones has had plenty of time to think about this possibility. At the same time, the Braves' veteran third baseman has had plenty of time to think about the frustration he felt this past summer when he was a bystander as his teammates experienced the jubilation created by a postseason berth.

"Everything that goes along with pro baseball you can do without from time to time," Jones said. "But there's nothing that can replace running out between those lines and competing and doing things to help your club win."

As the Braves attempt to earn a second straight postseason berth, they find themselves encouraged that Jason Heyward will be a year older and now a member of a lineup that includes Dan Uggla's power. But the true X-factor in this equation could prove to be Jones, who will seemingly get the opportunity to prove that he can indeed continue serving as a productive three-hole hitter.

While hitting .265 with an .813 OPS over the past two seasons, Jones hasn't looked like a three-hole hitter or the beast that he was when he hit .342 with a 1.027 OPS from 2006-08.

"One of the things that has concerned me over the past year-plus is the fact that the ball isn't coming off the bat the way I want it to, and it's not because I'm old," Jones said. "It's because I'm doing something fundamentally that's not right.

"Right-handed, the ball is still coming off the bat the way that it should. Left-handed, it's just a little different. There are just a couple of tweaks that I've tried to make over the offseason that have really taken flight."

While working out in his basement over the past couple of months, Jones believes he might have tinkered with his swing in the mirror enough to make the necessary mechanical adjustment. It will be a couple months before the veteran truly understands where he stands from an offensive standpoint.

But while spending the past two days routinely centering the pitches being thrown by Braves baseball systems operator Alan Butts, Jones has given himself reason to be encouraged by where his swing stands after taking batting practice just three times this year.

"My hand-eye coordination is a lot better than I thought it would be," Jones said. "From just a purely baseball standpoint, I can't ever remember a first two or three sessions that were ever better. Just centering balls from both sides of the plate, hitting the ball the other way, being balanced and whatnot. ... Maybe a six-month vacation was just what the body needed."

While there's not reason to get overly excited about what transpires in an indoor batting cage in the middle of January, Jones did provide reasons to be impressed as he handled the bat and allowed it to make that unique sound reserved only for the sweetest of swings.

More importantly, there wasn't a hint of hesitance whenever he attempted to turn on a pitch from either the right or left side of the plate.

Braves general manager Frank Wren watched Jones take batting practice and walked away believing his veteran third baseman was much further along than he would have envisioned with a month remaining before Spring Training.

"People are coming in here and watching to see if the knee is sound," Jones said. "I'm not coming in here just to see if the knee is sound. I'm coming in here to get my mechanics right so that I can start rolling come April. I'm not worried about the offense. I'm fairly certain that I'll be sound offensively. But that's only a third of the game."

Because he ended the 2010 season on the disabled list, Jones will be able to begin official on-field workouts when Braves pitchers and catchers hold their first workout of the year on Feb. 15 at Disney's Wide World of Sports Complex.

As things stand, Jones believes that will be the first time that he begins testing his knee from a defensive perspective. While ranging to his left will be important, he seems quite eager to see how he feels once he ranges to his right like he did on the night of Aug. 10, when he suffered the knee injury while leaping and making a pinpoint throw in Houston.

Once Jones proves that he can move laterally and make the straight-leg throws often necessary after charging a ball, he'll tell manager Fredi Gonzalez that he's ready to begin playing games. But until he feels he can pass all of the tests in confident fashion, he doesn't even want to put himself in position for a potential setback.

"The last thing I want to do is get gun-shy and put a ball in my pocket," Jones said. "I don't want to put a ball in my pocket one time for fear that I'll reinjure myself. Then all of the sudden everybody will be saying, 'He can't do it.' I don't want to hear that I can't make a play. I want to make sure that my mobility is there and that the injury is long gone from being a problem mentally."

From a physical standpoint, Jones feels much different than he did as recently as November, when the knee didn't react kindly to increased demands.

From a mental standpoint, Jones appears to be miles away from where he stood in June, when he was so frustrated by his play that he told the Braves that he would likely retire at the end of the 2010 season.

Jones' mindset changed as he proved more productive in the two months leading up to the knee injury. Now five months removed from a surgical procedure that could have ended his career, he no longer seems to be even thinking about retirement.

In fact with Spring Training quickly approaching, a recharged Jones isn't allowing himself to even think about the possibility that this could be his final season.

"I'm certainly not coming into Spring Training saying this is my last year," Jones said. "I think some of the enthusiasm would be dimmed. I've said all along that as long as I'm producing and helping this team win, I want to play. It's when I'm not playing well and my body isn't allowing me to play well that it gets discouraging.

"I certainly realize that my days are numbered and I'm close to the end. But as I sit here right now, I'm under contract for 2011, and I'm excited about the challenges ahead of us."

Waiver Claim-Anthony Varvaro

A small move. Not anything major here.

"ATLANTA -- If Anthony Varvaro proves to be as valuable as Eric O'Flaherty has been, the Braves will certainly be happy about their latest attempt to enhance their organization's bullpen depth with a pitcher who had been deemed expendable by the Mariners.

The Braves claimed Varvaro off waivers this week. The Mariners had designated the 26-year-old right-handed reliever for assignment on Jan. 3.

When the Braves claimed O'Flaherty off waivers from the Mariners two years ago, he had already enjoyed some success at the Major League level. Varvaro's Major League experience is limited to the four appearances he made for the Mariners this past season.

Varvaro posted a 4.02 ERA and registered 72 strikeouts while issuing 35 walks in 65 innings with Double-A West Tennessee and Triple-A Tacoma this past season.

Varvaro's fastball has rested around 93 mph and occasionally touched 95. The Mariners selected him in the 12th round of the 2005 First-Year Player Draft. He was projected to be selected within the first couple rounds before he blew out his elbow while pitching at St. John's University."

-Not a terrible player
-Room for improvement/has upside
-Only 26 years old
-Already had Tommy John surgery
-bullpen depth/40 man roster?

I'll see what else I can find on this and keep you posted.

Return of the Blogger

It's been nearly three years since the last article, and now "Braves Baseball Blog" will spring back to life again with abundant information and opinions on the Atlanta Braves. Hurray for those dedicated readers I had during my time(none); your life is now worth living as I plan on writing at least one article a day. Let's see how I do this time.

Most likely there are already several sites covering the Atlanta Braves. Take a look at TalkingChop if you haven't already. Not only that, there are numerous sites that cover all of the major league team's latest moves such as MLBTradeRumors. Just consider this another source I guess. I like to label myself as one with a good understanding of baseball. I have good knowledge of baseball statistics including saber-metrics. Not just knowing what they mean, but how to use them correctly. OPS vs RBI? One is meaningful and the other is almost trivial.

I don't know where to start. I haven't done any kind of serious writing in some time. I don't consider a comment here and there on Facebook or on a message board to be writing.

I did go back and read a few articles I created ages ago. Obviously a lot has changed...including my feelings towards those Philadelphia Phillies.

It doesn't make sense to go posting detailed articles about things that have already happened months ago, but I will do a quick summary of some of the more important changes that have happened recently.

-Some things to take note of:

• Legendary Braves Manager Bobby Cox retired as a manager, however he still has a role with the Braves
  
• Braves acquired slugging second baseman Dan Uggla from the Florida Marlins for Omar Infante and Mike Dunn
• Dan Uggla signed five year $62 million extension
• Braves signed relief pitcher George Sherrill
• Relief pitcher Scott Linebrink and $3.5 million obtained by trade from the Chicago White Sox
• Eric Hinske re-signed for $1.35 million
  

The team's roster moves have gone pretty well for this off-season; no outrageous moves or real head scratchers. Rookie Freddie Freeman brings excitement as he will be given the job at first base at just 21 years old. With the current roster, they should contend for the upcoming 2011 season barring any serious injuries.

The NL East won't be easy to grab. The Phillies remain a huge threat and have signed top of the line starting pitcher Cliff Lee after trading him a year ago for Roy Halladay. I like to label this this Phillies team as the "Yankees of the NL" with their recent spending ways. They are clearly trying buy their future titles. Atlanta may end up with the wild card for a second consecutive season. Nothing wrong with that.

That's it for the first post of my return. Following this will be the most recent team transaction.