Wednesday, February 9, 2011

Predicting Tim Hudson

Since there is really nothing major going on for the time being, I decided to finally do my personal predictions.

I will start with Tim Hudson's 2011 season stats. I created an article regarding him and predictions prior to this a little less than a month ago.

I still like to be able to see how they do in spring training before I go posting stats, but spring training really doesn't mean a whole lot unless the player is fighting for a job. The ones who are proven and guaranteed a spot on the team usually just try to get ready for the season and not go all out. More specifically pitchers, where they might just throw one or two of their pitches in a game to work out any kinks, to get back into rhythm.

I don't think I'm going to get real optimistic here for the most part. I'd like to post average to below average kinds of numbers, or maybe along the lines of Marcel projections which are very conservative. When I say very conservative I'm saying predicting Albert Pujols to hit a league high 34 home runs, and that five people in all will hit 30 home runs or more. It's not likely that those results will happen, the league leader in home runs will have more than 34, and there will also be many more players with 30 or more home runs. So in that case, I will like the end results better if they exceed the expectations, especially Atlanta Braves players.

I will also link to fangraphs so you can see projections from other different sources as well.

Tim Hudson 2011

14-10, 207 IP, 3.35 ERA, 130 K, 1.20 WHIP

I'm going to keep it simple as well. I'm not going into k/9 or FIP and all that stuff like the great Bill James. I included a few more basic stats not listed in the other sources as well. Those are strike outs (K) and WHIP.

As you can see, I went with a more conservative approach. He could very well win 20 games, pitch 230 innings and have an ERA under 3.00, but then that would be pretty optimistic if I posted those numbers.

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