Predicting Tommy Hanson

I figured I would go with Tommy Hanson next in my predictions. He seems to be one of the easier guys for me to round up some numbers for, so I'll get him out of the way.

I'm expecting big things from this guy. With his rookie season and that second season or common term "sophomore slump" season out of the way, it may the time for him to take it to the next level.

I don't usually care about W-L records as they are mostly team dependent (you need runs) but Hanson could of had a record of 14-4 instead of 11-4 in his rookie season. He left the game with a lead where the bullpen blew it three times.

His 2010 season was solid, you couldn't ask for much better numbers out of a guy who was only 23 years old and in his 2nd season. He got no run support, which explains his 10-11 record despite having an ERA of 3.33 in 202.2 innings. I'll take that as a slump, his rookie season numbers were better across the board, but in less innings pitched.

I looked at some of the fangraphs projections. Bill James doesn't really like him, but overall the numbers are okay. I have no doubt that he will produce an era better than 3.41 as he "projected." In fact I think he will have an ERA under 3.00 for this season. Why do I say this?

-In his rookie season he posted an ERA of 2.89.

-He had a few bad months in 2010, without those he was awesome. These bad months or string of bad starts were not anywhere near the norm. I know that these bad months count, but as a pitcher matures, he should find ways to get out of these flukes more frequently.

-April 2.17 ERA
-May 5.09 ERA
-June 6.31 ERA
-July 2.43 ERA
-August 3.05 ERA
-September/October 1.81 ERA

Take away those two bad months and it looks pretty good right? Ironically, during the bad stretch he was 8-3.

That's a 2.40 era from July through September, including one start in October, with a 2.17 ERA from April.

So, you can see why I think he can easily have an ERA under 3.00 for this season.

Now, I don't want to be too crazy here. With a bunch of sources predicting his ERA to be over 3.00, I'll go along that line as well. Perhaps they see something I don't? But I do think he will take things up a notch, or rather, take over as the top starter of the staff.

15-7, 218 IP, 3.09 ERA, 192 K, 1.14 WHIP